Scenario Outlook

Base, upside, and downside projections for family wealth trajectory.

Current Position (2025)

Net Worth
~$195M
AV Units
~9.5M
@ $26/unit = $248M gross
Annual Burn
~$1.2M
$99K/mo entity + personal
Annual Income
~$1.9M
Salary + distributions + investment

📊 Base Case

Steady Growth, No Major Events

Time Horizon: 5-10 years

Key Assumptions:

  • AV valuation grows 10-15% annually
  • Units reach $40-50/unit by 2030-2035
  • No major liquidity events
  • Real estate appreciates 3% annually
  • Distributions continue at ~$0.02/unit

Projected Outcomes:

  • Net worth reaches $300-400M
  • All debt paid down
  • Kids fully financially independent
  • Foundation assets grow to $25M+
2035 Est. Net Worth
$300-400M

🚀 Upside Case

Major Liquidity Event

Time Horizon: 3-7 years

Key Assumptions:

  • AV IPO or acquisition
  • Units valued at $75-100+
  • Significant liquidity realized
  • Capital gains taxes on realization

Projected Outcomes:

  • Net worth exceeds $500M+
  • Major philanthropic opportunities
  • Estate planning becomes critical
  • Diversification possible
  • Multi-generational wealth established
Potential Net Worth
$500M+

⚠️ Downside Case

Market Downturn / Extended Illiquidity

Time Horizon: Ongoing risk

Key Assumptions:

  • AV valuation declines 30-50%
  • No liquidity events for 10+ years
  • Real estate values flat/declining
  • Distributions reduced or suspended

Projected Outcomes:

  • Net worth declines to $100-150M
  • May need to reduce burn rate
  • Still comfortable lifestyle
  • Reduced optionality
  • Focus on liquid assets
Stress Scenario
$100-150M

Key Variables Driving Outcomes

VariableCurrentBase CaseUpsideDownside
AV Unit Value $26 $40-50 $75-100+ $13-18
Liquidity Event None Partial by 2030 IPO / Acquisition None for 10+ yrs
Annual Distributions ~$400K $500-600K $1M+ (one-time) $200K or less
Real Estate $20M $25M $30M $15-18M

Risk Mitigation Strategies

💰 Maintain Liquidity

Keep $2-3M in liquid investments and cash to cover 2+ years of burn without distributions.

🏠 Real Estate Income

Properties generate rental income independent of AV performance.

📊 Diversification

Continue building non-AV assets: crypto, art, public investments, real estate.

✂️ Flexible Burn

Many expenses are discretionary. Can reduce burn 30-40% if needed.